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The Democratic Party Going Forward
Quote:It may be too late. In Nevada this weekend — the first state with a sizable Latino vote — Democratic activists were still murmuring about the inability of Klobuchar and Tom Steyer to name Mexico’s president during interviews with Telemundo late last week. Polling suggests Buttigieg and Klobuchar are not exciting broad swaths of voters in Nevada and South Carolina. Elizabeth Warren finished a distant fourth in New Hampshire. Hoarse when she addressed a Clark County Democratic Party gala at the Tropicana on Saturday night, she said she’d caught a cold.

“He’s going to win with 28 percent of the vote. We’re not talking about him getting 50 percent of the vote,” said Andres Ramirez, a Nevada-based Democratic strategist and former vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee’s Hispanic Caucus. “But the rest of the field is so fragmented, and he has his base locked, that he can continue winning just by holding onto his base.”

Advisers to three rival campaigns privately conceded over the weekend that the best anyone else could hope for [in Nevada] is second or third.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/17...ack-115450

You love to see it.
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You love to see a contested convention? Because that's where we're headed if the winner of each primary tops out at 28%...
Gamertag: Tweakee
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Sanders is the second choice for many voters out there who aren't already Bernie supporters.

So long as candidates like Liz do the right thing and drop out when the time comes, it shouldn't be a problem.
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That doesn't appear to be true... Warren's number dipped in NH... and the votes went to Buttigeig and Klobaucher.

Warren has consistently been the 2nd choice of most voters, not Sanders. Sanders didn't pick up Biden or Warren voters when they lagged in Iowa/NH.

Sanders is in a weird spot where he needs a wide field to win primaries, but needs a narrowed field to get to 51% and avoid a contested convention, where his not being a Democrat could really hurt him.

If Warren does fade, Sanders has no one to ally with at a contested convention to get to 51%. For all the glee that Bernie Bros seem to be taking in the prospect of getting Warren out of the race, that could end up being the thing that sinks his chances.
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There's an interesting parallel on how the corporate media is dismissing Sanders' chances and picking other candidates as more viable choices, with how they dismissed Trump and assumed Rubio, Cruz, Jeb Bush were more serious contenders.
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Ah, so Farsight is saying it's actually Bernie who needs to drop out.

Bold strategy.

Anyway I'm going to repost this survey from last week because disingenuously doomsaying about the convention appears to be Farsight's bag from here on out.

[Image: e1909b70-4f50-11ea-8f3f-8fa3c2558158]

Bernie will only get stronger as time goes, until we get to our Bernie/Bloomberg endgame when the question "whose side are you on" becomes really important.
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I think it’s funny all the Dems are going hard after a guy who won’t even be on the ballot until Super Tuesday. Bernie and the Bros. seem to be the most worried about him.

(02-17-2020, 06:18 PM)Amos Wrote: Ah, so Farsight is saying it's actually Bernie who needs to drop out.

Bold strategy.

Anyway I'm going to repost this survey from last week because disingenuously doomsaying about the convention appears to be Farsight's bag from here on out.

[Image: e1909b70-4f50-11ea-8f3f-8fa3c2558158]

Bernie will only get stronger as time goes, until we get to our Bernie/Bloomberg endgame when the question "whose side are you on" becomes really important.

POLLS!!!!
"Every romantic comedy should just be called "Tryin' to Fuck" - Patton Oswalt
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(02-17-2020, 06:18 PM)Amos Wrote: Ah, so Farsight is saying it's actually Bernie who needs to drop out.

Unsurprisingly, you're not listening...

The point was that Warren weakening has not been a good thing for Sanders. Her votes have not gone to Sanders, they've gone to decidedly less progressive candidates. This means that the overall % of voters voting towards the left end of the spectrum has gone down.

Bernie needs them to go UP to 51%. Warren's delegates are the only ones at all likely to shift to Sanders if no one gets to 51%. If that still doesn't get him to 51%... he's probably not going to be the nominee.

But hey, keep doing a victory dance. In February. With 1.6% of delegates counted. In 2nd place.
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Bernie Bros. Takes me back to Obama boys.

Are we voting for obnoxious Twitter-heads or policies? I couldn’t care less about a candidate’s followers.

Except for Trump’s, for obvious reasons.
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Oh, I'd still rank Sanders 2nd in my voting preferences.

But a candidates' supporters do affect my opinion of the candidate. Shouldn't they? I mean, even if Pumpkins were a well-spoken, charismatic figure whose policies better masked their true nature, wouldn't the people at his rallies still give you the creeps?

I remind myself that the Sanders supporters who behave grotesquely are a relatively small number of people. Many fanbases have a toxic bottom. But only one Democratic candidate has a following that reminds me of MAGAs. It just makes me wonder: what is it about Sanders that draws the type of people whose behavior I do my best to avoid in my daily life?
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I couldn’t give a shit about the supporters.
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Fresh data shows Bernie up by 19 in NV

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/stat...9261038592

Quote:Caucus Voters:
  • Sanders 35%
  • Warren 16%
  • Buttigieg 15%
  • Biden 14%
  • Steyer 10%
  • Klobuchar 9%
  • Gabbard 2%

Among Hispanics:
  • Sanders 64%
  • Steyer 8%
  • Biden/Klobuchar 7%
  • Warren 5%
  • Buttigieg 4%
  • Gabbard 2%

Among Whites:
  • Sanders 28%
  • Warren/Buttigieg 18%
  • Biden 12%
  • Steyer/Klobuchar 11%
  • Gabbard 2%

Favorable/Unfavorable (Net):
  • Sanders 68%/30% (+38)
  • Warren 65%/30% (+35)
  • Steyer 59%/28% (+31)
  • Klobuchar 55%/27% (+28)
  • Buttigieg 54%/35% (+19)
  • Biden 48%/50% (-2)
  • Bloomberg 32%/48% (-16)
  • Gabbard 14%/52% (-38)

Who here was saying Bernie will be cooked by the time non-white voters start weighing in?
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POLLS!!!!

I don’t think anyone legitimate said Bernie would be “cooked” once non-white voters weighed in. Just that he’d have a more difficult time. Especially once you get to the older minority voters in the South.

I expect Bernie to win in NV because it’s a caucus. And Bernie has historically done better in those than in primaries (although he did lose the Iowa caucus this year).
"Every romantic comedy should just be called "Tryin' to Fuck" - Patton Oswalt
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At what point should other candidates drop out?

A POLLing threshold, or some other metric?
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when it’s clear they won’t get the nomination. So probably on Super Tuesday or the day after. Basically delegate math. 

I would expect by 3/4 we’ll be down to 2 or 4 candidates. All depends on Bloomberg.
"Every romantic comedy should just be called "Tryin' to Fuck" - Patton Oswalt
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(02-17-2020, 10:08 PM)Paul755 Wrote: when it’s clear they won’t get the nomination. So probably on Super Tuesday or the day after. Basically delegate math. 

I would expect by 3/4 we’ll be down to 2 or 4 candidates. All depends on Bloomberg.

This. They should drop out when it becomes mathematically impossible for them to get the nomination. Like Bernie should have done in 2016.
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(02-17-2020, 09:19 PM)Amos Wrote: Who here was saying Bernie will be cooked by the time non-white voters start weighing in?

I was talking about the South, where Bernie lost pretty much every state, most by huge margins.

He lost Nevada by... (checking)... 5%, which isn't much. He lost SC by 47% (!!!).

And it's not "cooked" so much as it is "not a clear front runner" if he doesn't improve in the South. One advantage he has going for him is that only Biden seems to have strong support in the South. Bernie could underperform in SC and still improve his chances, if Buttigeig faceplants.

(02-17-2020, 10:08 PM)Paul755 Wrote: when it’s clear they won’t get the nomination. So probably on Super Tuesday or the day after. Basically delegate math. 

I would expect by 3/4 we’ll be down to 2 or 4 candidates. All depends on Bloomberg.

3/3 is insanely important. It's nuts that the DNC allows 1/3rd of the delegates to vote on one day. But it'll definitely clear up the picture.

Note: Sanders lost most of the 3/3 states to Clinton in 2016. So if he's the clear leader on 3/4, he'll be in great shape. But it's definitely not a given.
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(02-17-2020, 10:32 PM)Fafhrd Wrote:
(02-17-2020, 10:08 PM)Paul755 Wrote: when it’s clear they won’t get the nomination. So probably on Super Tuesday or the day after. Basically delegate math. 

I would expect by 3/4 we’ll be down to 2 or 4 candidates. All depends on Bloomberg.

This. They should drop out when it becomes mathematically impossible for them to get the nomination. Like Bernie should have done in 2016.

Bernie never actually conceded did he? He just stopped campaigning for himself and then made sure all his delegates got counted for him during the roll call.

The Bernie-Holes (discussion from Discord) would sure hate if someone did that to them wouldn’t they.
"Every romantic comedy should just be called "Tryin' to Fuck" - Patton Oswalt
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I remember that when it became clear that he wasn't going to get enough regular delegates he suddenly pivoted from 'super-delegates are a symptom of a corrupt system trying to silence the voice of The Revolution and we shouldn't have them' to 'we're going to try to get the super delegates on side because if we get the super delegates we can still clinch the nomination.'
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indeed
"Every romantic comedy should just be called "Tryin' to Fuck" - Patton Oswalt
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I was curious, and wanted a post to refer back to on 3/3, so here's how Sanders did in 2016 in the upcoming primaries:

State (# of delegates): Margin

NV (36): -5%
SC (54): -47%
AL (52): -59%
AS (6): -43%
AR (31): -33%
CA (415): -7%
CO (67): +19%
ME (24): +29%
MA (91): -1%
MN (75): +23%
NC (110): -14%
OK (37): +10%
TN (64): -34%
TX (228): -32%
UT (29): +59%
VE (16): +72%
VI (99): -29%

So, Sanders won a majority in states representing 248 delegates, and lost a majority in states representing 1186 delegates, including getting stomped in states representing 534.

And that's why I keep harping on SC. It gives us a hint of what to expect in 584 delegates worth of southern states on 3/3. Between that and CA, you're talking about 999 delegates. CA's probably going to be split among multiple candidates, but the south is a mystery...
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Yeah, I remember people touting Bernie victories in 2016 and me pointing out "In a primary that got him 16 delegates while he's hundreds of delegates behind Hillary. Who keeps winning the big states."
My karmic debt must be huge.

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My blog: An Embarrassment of Rich's
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6 debaters tomorrow, Bloomberg is in, Steyer is out, so it's the 6 candidates with a realistic chance of being the nominee.
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Knives out for Bloomberg from everyone who isn’t Bloomberg, I’d hope.
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Honestly, Steyer would have been better than Bloomberg.
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(02-18-2020, 08:47 AM)Richard Dickson Wrote: Yeah, I remember people touting Bernie victories in 2016 and me pointing out "In a primary that got him 16 delegates while he's hundreds of delegates behind Hillary. Who keeps winning the big states."

Wasn't part of the thing there that he was winning in more places that Hillary also lost in the general and ended up costing her the election?
Not that primary votes are going to map beautifully to the general election, but that seemed like one of the main (possibly only) arguments.

(I'm just trying to navigate Bernie world. Most of my US political media is all Bernie all the time and they all seem lovely. I don't know where you have to go to hate Bernie fans but I've basically managed to miss that completly for the second time.)
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New polls have Bloomberg tied for first in VI and NC, and leading in OK, which gets him to 4th in 538's computer simulation (No One is still 1st).

Basically, it looks like he, Biden and Sanders will be battling it out in the South, with everyone else hoping for scraps.
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Remember the good old days when we were like, "Any sane adult in 2020?" Now it's like, "Wait... these stooges suck."
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Lord if Bloomberg actually manages to buy the nomination, it's time to pack it in and just let the rich enslave us fully. It might depress me more thinking about the mental capabilities of my fellow Americans than Trump winning again or the first time did.
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As a former Chewer and current friend on FB put it: Bloomberg buying the nomination doesn't break the system. It's how the system is designed to work.
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The first political essay I ever wrote was in junior high, on voter apathy. That's the issue we still have to deal with if the system is ever going to improve.

Bloomberg's on the rise mainly because for a big chunk of the voting public, he's the only person they're hearing and seeing. We can have as many debates as we want, but if 40% of voters don't watch any of em, they're still only going to see the ads.

The solution? Turn it into a reality show.
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(02-18-2020, 10:15 PM)farsight Wrote: The first political essay I ever wrote was in junior high, on voter apathy. That's the issue we still have to deal with if the system is ever going to improve.

Bloomberg's on the rise mainly because for a big chunk of the voting public, he's the only person they're hearing and seeing. We can have as many debates as we want, but if 40% of voters don't watch any of em, they're still only going to see the ads.

The solution? Turn it into a reality show.

The debates are basically worthless and I don't blame voters for not watching them.  However voters should be informed and it looks like 40% of them are completely ignorant.  There are so many excellent sources to find out what the candidates stand for and none of them can be found in a 15 second ad.
I think these screen captures and giant (Dildi? Is there a plural?) are just the next step in the JJ Abrams online adventure series. Very slyly played, Bitches Leave.-Tom Fuchs
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie-sa...25da512ce3

Quote:Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one of Bernie Sanders’s most vocal and visible allies in his presidential campaign, said last week that Democrats may have to “compromise deeply” on the Vermont senator’s signature “Medicare for All” plan to get the legislation passed. Sanders, however, pushed back Tuesday, insisting his policy proposal is “already a compromise.”

“A president can’t wave a magic wand and pass any legislation they want,” she said, adding that “the worst-case scenario” if Sanders is elected president is that Democrats “compromise deeply and we end up getting a public option.”

“Is that a nightmare? I don’t think so,” she added. 

Will Sanders' supporters burn her with fire now? She's clearly a (hiss) centrist (hiss boo hiss)!

I am dumbfounded that AOC is now a voice of reason on the left. And annoyed that she has a better grasp on how politics works than the lifetime Congressman who's currently considered the favorite to be the Presidential nominee...
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Oh no, not AOC too!

RIP America: ???? - 2020
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(02-19-2020, 12:09 AM)farsight Wrote: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/bernie-sa...25da512ce3

Quote:Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), one of Bernie Sanders’s most vocal and visible allies in his presidential campaign, said last week that Democrats may have to “compromise deeply” on the Vermont senator’s signature “Medicare for All” plan to get the legislation passed. Sanders, however, pushed back Tuesday, insisting his policy proposal is “already a compromise.”

“A president can’t wave a magic wand and pass any legislation they want,” she said, adding that “the worst-case scenario” if Sanders is elected president is that Democrats “compromise deeply and we end up getting a public option.”

“Is that a nightmare? I don’t think so,” she added. 

Will Sanders' supporters burn her with fire now? She's clearly a (hiss) centrist (hiss boo hiss)!

I am dumbfounded that AOC is now a voice of reason on the left. And annoyed that she has a better grasp on how politics works than the lifetime Congressman who's currently considered the favorite to be the Presidential nominee...

Wait, Bernie thinks his proposal is already a compromise? What happened to not opening with your compromise position?! Amos please help me understand how many dimensions of chess Bernie is playing here!
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