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War Drums

Ottoman Empire Strikes Back?


It's still pretty murky.  Lebanese news outlets with sources in the Syrian government said right away the plane was shot down in Syrian territory.  The Turkish president said in transit that Syria had apologized and both pilots were safe. After the president landed he called a press conference and then couldn't give any specifics, and couldn't confirm his earlier statements, butsaid that a search was on for the pilots.  Then he went right into a security meeting.

So this could be nothing, or it could be the expansion of the Syrian conflict into another vietnam (NATO on one side, Russia and Iran on the other).

Conspiracy time!  My guess is the F-4 was a Wild Weasel variant doing some kind of electronic warfare, or recon.  Possibly in support of NATO troops already on the ground in Syria.  Turkey has been VERY careful not to make Syria angry, or provoke them in any way.  So the presence of a jet from a northern base (per BBC) in or near Syrian territory is kinda suspicious.


Syria said sorry about the jet.

The US naval buildup in the gulf is getting noticed:


US insists the huge naval buildup in the Persian Gulf is just an exercise:

Breaking: Israeli Youth Basketball team's bus bombed in Bulgaria, Israel blames Iran:

And just now The Free Syrian army hit several high-ranking cabinet members, apparently it was a suicide bombing:

So that's all bad.


Man, this is a depressing thread. Let's all take a breath and look at an 8 week old orange kitten playing

And to keep that good feeling going, a daschund puppy discovering his reflection in a mirror.


The good cheer is appreciated.

Saudi Police open fire on protestors:

'Hot War' erupting with Iran:

US Warns of Syrian Government Preparations for Aleppo Massacre:


The Syrian civil war is spilling over into Lebanon: 


Situation in Syria from someone who lives there:


That thread is heartbreaking.  Each update is devastating, then I (spoilered for sadnessSmile

Hit the picture of the wounded ginger kitty,

and have now completely lost it.


Thoughts on the utter lack of political will by the UN, NATO, Arab League, etc. to do anything but tisk tisk the Syrian civil war?

In that-escalated-quickly news, anti-Japan protests are getting violent in China, over a set of disputed islands:

The territorial dispute escalated on Friday when China sent six surveillance ships to the uninhabited islands, after the Japanese government bought them from their private owners.

Though Japan has controlled the islands for decades, China saw the purchase as further proof of Japan's refusal to negotiate.

China is under strong popular pressure to take a tough line with Japan.

It will also have to be cautious not to let the protests spin out of control.

The influential Chinese tabloid, the Global Times, published by the Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily, said backing off was not an option for China.

"China should be confident about strategically overwhelming Japan," it wrote, saying the Chinese military should "increase their preparation and intensify their deterrence" against Japan.

"China will not shy away if Japan chooses to resort to its military."

Earlier, Al Jazeera's Ortigas said the protests may have been encouraged to distract the Chinese nationals from their domestic concerns.

"There have been accusations of corruption," she said.

"There has also been widespread unrest socially in China from what we understand. At the same time there have been questions about the smoothness of the leadership transition, which is in the works for the end of this year."

Hopefully it's all just heated rhetoric.



Fascinating.  Arms Control Wonk is my go-to on Iran.  The latest article does a good job outlining why the new 'Red Line' is probably just more bluster:


Syrian mortars hit Turkey, five killed:

Unconfirmed reports of return fire from Turkey.


It's getting worse.


Sixth strait day of cross-border artillery fire:


I really wonder how much longer this is going to play out before the UN decides to do something. Part of me is wondering if they are waiting to see who wins the US election before really moving forward...


Syria's stockpile of chemical and biological weapons is not something to mess around with, and I think the regime would use them if there was an official incursion by foreign forces.

Turkey deploys F-16's to the border:


Turkey forced a Syrian passenger jet from Russia to land, took radar equipment off:

Russia, Syria, pissed.

Also jets scrambled as Syrian chopper nears Turkish border:


Israel may have bombed a munitions plant in Sudan:

But it's not like the Sudanese government is all that trustworthy.


Remember when the Polish president and most of his staff died in a mysterious plane crash in Russia two years ago?

Turns out, it was probably an assassination:




Constantly send non-stealthy spyplanes over a sovereign nation and a few are going to get shot down.  Iran should have done it over their territory though, harder to object to.


The Syrian civil war is again threatening to spill over:

While Israel attacks Gaza:


This doesn't sound good at all:

"US Warns Syria may be preparing Chemical Weapons"

And the UN is pulling out of Syria.


Who's drone did Iran capture?

More Syrian civil was spillover in Lebanon:

Turkey gets ok for Patriot Missile batteries on the Syrian border:

And Iraq denies a Turkish plane from landing in Kurdistan.

All of that seems like escalation to me, sadly.

AUgh! The Middle East is in powder keg mode! Can we just build a giant wall around it so we don't have to deal with them until they grow up!

Not like some acquaintances have suggested like nuking them into Stone Age. This would be very bad, I'm all for giant wall idea.

This thread is my personal worry-doll.  If I keep posting things here, they won't get worse. It's LOST island, a cork for all the evil in the Titus Welliver!

Except for Syria and Gaza, those keep getting worse.


I don't think the Navy would necessarily straight-up lie like that.  It's probably an Israeli drone.

My biggest fear about what's going on in the world right now is about the expanding Israeli settlements.

I really don't think Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons.  There has been no evidence of that, just a lot of war hawk posturing. 


So what are our realistic options if Syria does use chemical weapons? Seems like only air strikes. No way in hell boots go on the ground.


Oh shit

ABoots on the ground is inevitable if breaking rumors are to be believed. Can't just bomb,if the sarin is ready, then bombing is to dangerous. there are 70 estimated depots around Syria. Those have to be secured to keep the regime from using them, and to keep the rebels from getting control over them because they don't have a good track record either.NATO or UN intervention very likely.

Can we just request a mulligan and try to redo every damn stupid post WW I treaty from the beginning? Holy shit what a mess these caused.


The saving grace here is that the "Sarin is ready, US going to attack Syria" reports are coming from Fox news, and RIA Novosti.  Neither of which is a very reliable source.


As far as I know it's French Special Forces that are ready to go in.

AI feel the proper thing to do is the tactics we did in Libya. I feel most of the world would join us to stop Assad since no way does anyone want to see sarin gas bombs to be used. This crap with Syria has to end cause its gone on way too long. Hell if it wasn't for China and Russia this would be solved by now.

Who would enforce the no-fly zone?

Also the Syrian regime has a lot more military capacity then Libya, and Libyan intervention did not carry with it the same threat of escalation (Chemical weapons deployment, scorched earth on rebel-held areas.)

There were also no Russian naval bases in Libya.

It's a much tougher nut to crack geopolitically.


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