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The Republican Party Going Forward v 2.0
(09-12-2019, 05:29 PM)farsight Wrote:
(09-12-2019, 09:10 AM)schwartz Wrote:
(09-12-2019, 12:34 AM)farsight Wrote: And whether it's in 2020, 2024 or 2028, when Texas turns blue, it's not turning back. Republicans have waged a war of hatred on the exact demographics that are growing there; it'll be virtually impossible to reverse that without tearing the party down and starting over.

I think that this will turn out to be an easier and faster project than you think.  When Trump is gone he will already have gutted the structure and stolen all the copper wiring from the walls, and there will still be plenty of industries that willing to finance the rehab in the hopes of styming regulations and progressive taxation.

Trump is an extreme outlier, for better and worse.

Heh, I disagree with every word of that, except the part about industries (quietly) wanting it to happen.

Pumpkins isn't an outlier. The modern Republican Party was formed when Southern Democrats left the party because it wasn't racist enough for them any longer. Republicans under Nixon welcomed them, their hatred and their ignorance with open arms, and it all became the party's identity going forward.

Catering to the ignorant and hate-filled for decades led to more and more ignorant, hate-filled candidates and policies. The path from Nixon to Reagan to the Bushes to the Dildo is a slow descent, not an extreme leap. A party that spent 50 years demonizing "others" and treating education and science as dirty words made nominating more and more stupid, racist candidates inevitable. A senile dipshit reality star becoming their God figure is completely on-brand.

Tearing that down and trying to re-brand as something else means telling nearly all of their voters to fuck off. It would mean trying to walk back the only ideology most of their supporters have ever known. What would even be left? The whole reason they embraced the dumb and racist was because the rest of their platform led to repeated defeats. Sane people never bought what they were selling.

Pumpkins didn't swoop in and take over the Republican Party. The Republican Party created him. He is their masterpiece, five decades in the making.

You seem to have read an awful lot more into the outlier comment than I meant.  I wasn't suggesting that Trump is not the logical conclusion of the GOP stoking the flames of xenophobia and anti-intellectualism in their base for decades.  But he is not a masterpiece, he's a golem, and he's destroyed the respectable veneer that the "big brains" intended to continue to use for decades to come.  

 Of course it is a mess of their making.  But Trump is such an extreme and absurd figure that I think he actually makes a "reinvention" of the party that is really just a reversion to the horrible-but-quiet status quo of decades past an easier sell in some ways.
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We shall see, but I can't see the genie being put back in the bottle.

Bob Dole famously tried to reclaim the party from racists... but he misread the room, and lost.

You'd have to start by convincing Fox News to fire 95% of their on-air personalities and replace them with journalists. How would you manage that?
Gamertag: Tweakee
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(09-12-2019, 06:25 PM)farsight Wrote: We shall see, but I can't see the genie being put back in the bottle.

Bob Dole famously tried to reclaim the party from racists... but he misread the room, and lost.

You'd have to start by convincing Fox News to fire 95% of their on-air personalities and replace them with journalists. How would you manage that?



Really?  I think Fox will fire like 2-3 of their on-air personalities that were the biggest Trump cheerleaders, and then just act as if the remainder were Never-Trumpers who courageously held the line the whole time and now you get a shiny new FNC with all the good stuff you love and with all that gross stuff purged out.

Same as the GOP will do.  As disgusting as Trump is, he is not going to instill any lasting love of progressive politics in the conservative faithful that will last after he is gone.
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The question is whether the people that Republicans inspire to vote AGAINST them will remain inspired.

There isn't some huge Republican groundswell against Pumpkins. He got about the same number of votes as Romney, and his approval rating among Republicans remains high. If he loses, a few in the party may want to pivot, but the majority of their politicians and their voters won't - because they're not fiscal conservatives along for the ride - they ARE Dildoes too.

If people start voting against Republicans, it won't be people who used to vote for them. It'll be people who used to stay home. Those people aren't going to turn red because of a PR campaign, because they were never red to begin with.
Gamertag: Tweakee
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Hannity and Carlson aren't going anywhere, and they're the loudest mouthpieces for the Trump-esque "screw you, I got mine" ideology. They could replace everyone BUT those two with Edward R. Murrow clones, and you'd still have the same problem. The far-right base listens to those two just like they did/do Limbaugh and Levin (to a lesser extent), and no amount of credible reporting outside of those two hours is going to change anything.

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I must be communicating this very badly. I never said anything to the effect that Trump was not a monster of the GOP’s making, or that the far right would disappear when he leaves office. 

My point is that even Trump’s successes are leaving a bunch of giant messes for the party to clean up.  My prediction is that Paul Ryan (or whoever) comes out of “retirement” the second Trump leaves office to announce a complete overhaul of the party into something less overtly hateful but identically horrible on a policy level. And I expect the base, Fox, and most of the rest of the media to roll with the narrative that the new coat of paint is actually a dramatic reinvention.

The point being, I’m not ready to buy into the idea that if Texas went blue in 2020, it would never flip back. Even if 2020 is an absolute massacre that ousts Trump and leave so the entire party in shambles,  I would still bet on them gaining back ground in the likes of TX, OH, and MI as early as 2022.
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Guys! Remember, we kicked those crooked Republicans out of the WH back in the 70s! We can

:: someone runs on ;:

Wait, for four years? And then Reagan/Bush for 12? Oh, ffs...

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(09-13-2019, 10:28 AM)schwartz Wrote: My point is that even Trump’s successes are leaving a bunch of giant messes for the party to clean up.  My prediction is that Paul Ryan (or whoever) comes out of “retirement” the second Trump leaves office to announce a complete overhaul of the party into something less overtly hateful but identically horrible on a policy level. And I expect the base, Fox, and most of the rest of the media to roll with the narrative that the new coat of paint is actually a dramatic reinvention.

The point being, I’m not ready to buy into the idea that if Texas went blue in 2020, it would never flip back. Even if 2020 is an absolute massacre that ousts Trump and leave so the entire party in shambles,  I would still bet on them gaining back ground in the likes of TX, OH, and MI as early as 2022.

Oh, I agree with most of that.

That will likely be the narrative they attempt, and it may work to some extent.

But the demographic problem they face means that any bounce back will be temporary, especially in a place like Texas. If the Dems take Texas in 2020, I wouldn't be surprised to see it swing back Red in 2024. But then without a major change in Republican policy, the demographic shift will turn it blue permanently not long after.

The problem they face in Texas and then nationally is the same one they faced in California post-Reagan. They began pushing racism and anti-immigrant sentiment to the forefront of their policies until they left behind their voter base. Once CA turned blue, it never turned back.

That genie's out of the bottle now. Pumpkins is just one of many out n proud racist Republican politicians. They're not getting rid of them all, and their identity's not changing while they're around. That identity appeals to a very vocal national minority... but they are the minority.

(09-13-2019, 10:47 AM)doc happenin Wrote: Guys! Remember, we kicked those crooked Republicans out of the WH back in the 70s! We can

:: someone runs on ;:

Wait, for four years? And then Reagan/Bush for 12? Oh, ffs...

That's my greatest fear. We drop-kick Pumpkins, do a victory lap, then don't vote in 2024 and we get President Paul Ryan.
Gamertag: Tweakee
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(09-13-2019, 11:24 AM)farsight Wrote: The problem they face in Texas and then nationally is the same one they faced in California post-Reagan. They began pushing racism and anti-immigrant sentiment to the forefront of their policies until they left behind their voter base. Once CA turned blue, it never turned back.
Pretty much this. They even saw this coming themselves in 2008-2012, but by the point that anyone was taking it seriously, they were already too entangled with the Tea Party (and the burgeoning alt-right movement that superceded it) to respond in a way that would've allowed them to leverage the general social-conservative bent of the U.S.'s growing Hispanic and Muslim populations to their advantage - pretty hard to talk people into voting for you when you're busy decrying them as the Great Brown Peril to the virulent-racist wing of your base. And I strongly suspect that that ship has long since sailed, even if they do try for an image-reinvention in the near-ish future.
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Mitch McConnell: The Man Who Sold America - https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/po...ssion=true

Quote:For so many years, McConnell has seemed maddeningly invincible. But now, just a few years after achieving his lifelong goal of becoming Senate majority leader, it appears that every political sin the man has committed on his relentless march to power is coming back to haunt him at once. He has welcomed infamy, and now it has arrived on its own terms, bringing with it a previously unthinkable possibility: Could 40 years’ worth of devil’s bargains finally be catching up with Mitch McConnell?

Nope. However, that *is* an interesting article.
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Maddow was reporting that his wife is now under direct Congressional fire. Just wondering what new deviltry he'll throw to get her and himself out of it.
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another R gone from Congress...


Quote:California Republican Rep. Paul Cook to retire from Congress, run for county supervisor seat

Rep. Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) will retire from Congress at the end of his term and will announce a run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors, according to John Sobel, the congressman’s chief of staff.

California’s Republican U.S. House delegation has been greatly diminished in recent years. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats took control of half of the 14 remaining Republican seats in California, which has a total of 53 congressional districts.

Cook’s departure from the 8th Congressional District will mark the latest in a series of other House Republican retirements as the lawmakers have had to confront life in the minority. In all, more than a dozen GOP members have announced plans to leave Congress after 2020, including several in Texas.

Cook, who was mayor of Yucca Valley and served in the state Assembly before being elected to Congress in 2012, is in his fourth term. He plans to announce a run to represent the 1st District of the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors. Robert Lovingood, who currently holds the seat, recently announced he won’t seek reelection.
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I used to be with "it", but then they changed what "it" was. Now, what I'm with isn't "it", and what's "it" seems weird and scary to me.   -Grandpa Simpson
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"Moscow Mitch" becoming a thing with his constituents would have been the closest thing the grotesque fuck had to a legit Achilles heel. Great job making that nickname stick, Dems.
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(Yesterday, 10:15 AM)Mangy Wrote: Mitch McConnell: The Man Who Sold America - https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/po...ssion=true

Quote:For so many years, McConnell has seemed maddeningly invincible. But now, just a few years after achieving his lifelong goal of becoming Senate majority leader, it appears that every political sin the man has committed on his relentless march to power is coming back to haunt him at once. He has welcomed infamy, and now it has arrived on its own terms, bringing with it a previously unthinkable possibility: Could 40 years’ worth of devil’s bargains finally be catching up with Mitch McConnell?

Nope. However, that *is* an interesting article.

Well, if we can get rid of Paul Ryan, there's a chance Fuck face Mitch might follow him out the door.
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Paul Ryan just moved his family to DC. He'll be back.
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Yeah, Ryan's was a strategic retreat to prepare himself for decades of post-Trump life. Mitch already drove the car off the cliff, he's not bailing now.
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All we have to do to vanquish McTurtle is take the Senate and kill the filibuster. Then he can impotently whine and squirm forever.

Heck, if they lose the Senate, good odds that Republicans turn on McConnel and oust him as leader. Then he could write his memoir: "Poor Me".
Gamertag: Tweakee
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I just want Kentuckians to hound him enough to actually hear him drawl “is you is, o is you inn’t, mah constitchency??” at a campaign event.
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