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The Democratic Party Going Forward
(07-02-2018, 06:09 PM)boone daniels Wrote: Stone has been beating this "people don't want democratic socialism" for months now and it's HILARIOUS.

Why?

Last time I checked, winning heavily blue districts isn't the problem.  When Democratic Socialists start winning general elections in traditionally red-leaning or at least red-held areas (you know, the places they NEED to win that aren't already heavily favoring them), then maybe I won't think they're being vastly overconfident about how many Americans genuinely want them and the implication that they would totally win everywhere "if only you would give us a chance!"
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Looks like Michigan Democrats are putting up a fight on voting rights.  The Promote the Vote campaign turned in 430,000 signatures on the state's deadline day for ballot proposal - far more than the required 316,000.  The package includes automatic registration and same-day registration:

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/stat...2092469251
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Anyone whining about "Bernie bros" not falling in line can get to fuck.

https://twitter.com/Ocasio2018/status/10...5268575232

The Dems would rather lose to a Republican than let a leftist win.
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Bernie progressive complaining about someone going third party? Oh, the irony!
Not so much tooth!
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I'm misremembering when Bernie went third party for the presidential election.

All the calls for unity run one way, even when the traditional candidate is trounced. The Democratic Party doesn't want actual change. They want everyone else to fall in line behind their failure.
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I think that article is a little unfair to Crowley, and at no point does the "Democratic party" say that they're backing Crowley. It does do a great job of explaining why NY politics and parties are fucked, and that it can be challenging to change the way a ballot is laid out.

Also, this is literally in the article: "Asked about Mr. Crowley’s plans regarding the Working Families Party line, a campaign spokeswoman said only: “Joe Crowley is a Democrat. He’s made clear he is not running for Congress and supports the Democratic nominee in NY-14.”"

Maybe read the fucking thing first.
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(07-12-2018, 10:36 AM)bendrix Wrote: Anyone whining about "Bernie bros" not falling in line can get to fuck.

https://twitter.com/Ocasio2018/status/10...5268575232

The Dems would rather lose to a Republican than let a leftist win.


Looks like that's false:

http://theweek.com/speedreads/784415/ale...ge-against
I think these screen captures and giant (Dildi? Is there a plural?) are just the next step in the JJ Abrams online adventure series. Very slyly played, Bitches Leave.-Tom Fuchs
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It'll be false when he withdraws his name from the ballot. Has that happened yet?
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As someone who has literally voted in New York elections since 2004, I can tell you that almost nobody pays attention to who's on the ballot for these third party candidates. I think the only time I voted third party was during the last gubernatorial when I was annoyed at Andrew Cuomo and last year when I wrote in someone's name for Cy Vance. This is the same state that has a Rent Is Too Damn High Party.

I guarantee you people are going to look at the D and the R and not even spot Crowley's name - which will probably be 7 on a list of 13 or some shit. This seems like laziness that ACO is trying to make into A Thing.

Now, if he doesn't stay true to his word and begins campaigning as the WFP candidate, then we can talk.
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You don't think that the incumbent being on the ballot might be a little different than a random third-party candidate?

We have the luxury of waiting until Crowley may or may not begin campaigning, whereas ACO now has to strategize potentially running against the Republican and the other Democrat.
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Given a)I know how elections work in this state and this doesn't seem particularly exceptional and b)that he's been a mensch about this whole thing while taking no end of shit from the national media, I'm inclined to believe him when he says he's not running.
home taping is killing music
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Please address the first question in my last post.
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No. I don't think it is different. If Crowley campaigns as a Democrat *for* ACO, which I'm inclined to believe he's going to do because of points elucidated in the article and my posts above, then his name is going to be one name on a long list nobody is really going to look at. Will he pick up a few votes? Probably. Will it be enough to swing the election in a district where the Democratic candidate has gotten 70 percent of the vote since 1996? Not a chance.
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I hope you're right. But "He's such a nice guy!" just doesn't cut it with me.
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Also, because of how the party system works in this state, it's crazy hard to be removed from the ballot. Crowley sums it up nicely:

“Lots questions about WFP line. Was honored to have their support. I’m not running. For record you can only be removed from the ballot if 1) you move out of NY; 2) die; 3) be convicted of a crime; 4) accept a nomination for another office (in a place I don’t live)."

“I don’t plan on moving out of New York, have a clean record, hope God’s will is that I don’t die, and won’t commit what I honestly believe to be election fraud," he wrote.
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boone, do you have a link for the quote above?
"Nooj's true feelings on any given subject are unknown and unknowable. He is the butterfly flapping its wings in Peking. He is chaos and destruction and you shall never see his true form." - Merriweather

My Steam ID: yizashigreyspear
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It's from Politico which is trying to instigate and make this more of a thing than it probably is:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/1...eud-714983
home taping is killing music
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It's exploding on my FB feed with a lot of folks shitposting about Crowley.
"Nooj's true feelings on any given subject are unknown and unknowable. He is the butterfly flapping its wings in Peking. He is chaos and destruction and you shall never see his true form." - Merriweather

My Steam ID: yizashigreyspear
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(07-12-2018, 12:18 PM)MichaelM Wrote: It's exploding on my FB feed with a lot of folks shitposting about Crowley.

Of course it is.
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(07-12-2018, 12:18 PM)MichaelM Wrote: It's exploding on my FB feed with a lot of russian bots shitposting about Crowley.

edited....
I used to be with "it", but then they changed what "it" was. Now, what I'm with isn't "it", and what's "it" seems weird and scary to me. -Grandpa Simpson
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https://twitter.com/mtaibbi/status/1018497055180943360

[Image: DiHda6BXcAEbGLM.jpg]
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Joe Lieberman endorses Crowley, who I guess is just on the ballot because reasons.

https://twitter.com/DavidKlion/status/10...98657?s=20
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I guarantee you that this is the annual attempt by Joe Lieberman to maintain his relevance so he can get those sweet sweet gigs consulting for the Trump administration.

Someone on Twitter said it best, which is that "I don't know a single Democrat who gives a single shit about Joe Lieberman's opinion on absolutely anything."

He may think he's still this country-above-party centrist, but no. He's a joke. People are laughing at him.

And again, Crowley cannot take his name off the ballot for reasons that were elucidated above.
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But don't you understand Boone? People FEEL like he should be able to take his name of the ballot however he wants, so it must be true!
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(07-17-2018, 09:18 PM)bendrix Wrote: Joe Lieberman endorses Crowley, who I guess is just on the ballot because reasons.

https://twitter.com/DavidKlion/status/10...98657?s=20


But Crowley endorsed Ocasio, so by the transitive property....nobody likes Joe Lieberman outside of Connecticut.  

At least that's how it feels in my circles.  The only time I've heard anyone mention his name in the last decade is to curse him for scuttling the public option in the ACA.
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Yeah, I think the last time I heard about Joe Lieberman was this year, and it was from a pull quote from that Obama oral history that just came out, and it was about the public option.

The quote was "Fuck Joe Lieberman."
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/22/us/po...grath.html

Quote:
Quote:She’ll face Representative Andy Barr, a Republican who won the district by 22 points in 2016, in the November general election.

That sounds daunting, but if I were Barr, I'd be a bit worried.  We've seen 15 point swings in many parts of Trump territory since 2016, and the veteran background and newcomer status could potentially make her more attractive to disaffected centrists.
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Gov. Mark Dayton of Minnesota is leaving office with a near-perfect credit rating:

https://blogs.mprnews.org/capitol-view/2...bond-sale/

Quote:Minnesota has a near-perfect credit rating as Gov. Mark Dayton’s tenure moves toward an end, bringing it back to where it was when the DFLer was elected in 2010.

Two bond rating agencies gave Minnesota a “AAA” rating in decisions issued Wednesday. That’s the top rating and matters because entities with that rating get better interest rates when borrowing for construction projects.

Minnesota officials plan to sell $619 million in bonds next month.

Standard & Poor’s gave Minnesota an upgrade while the Fitch Ratings assessment remained the same. Minnesota’s strong budget management and recent steps to shore up public pensions were cited as reasons. The S&P rating urged state leaders to do more to get pension resources in line with obligations to retirees.

The third major ratings service, Moody’s Investors Service, kept Minnesota one tick below perfect, at Aa1. The agency said Minnesota has solid reserves and adheres to sound financial practices, but noted that “idiosyncratic governance issues arise from time to time.”
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The last thing the housing-starved Bay Area needs is more obstacles, but Trump's trade war is exacerbating the situation:

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/07/31/t...-building/

Quote:Levies on imported lumber and steel have become an emerging threat to residential projects in the housing-starved Bay Area, local developers and analysts say. The tariffs have driven up costs and stalled projects while mandating redesigns and sending builders scrambling to find savings elsewhere.

New construction on apartments, condos and communities for middle- and low-income families could feel the brunt of rising material costs, analysts say.

“We’re building, but we’re not building fast enough,” said Sean Randolph, senior director of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. “Increasing housing costs due to tariffs doesn’t help.”
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I pointed it out in the Fox thread, but it bears repeating that Seattle is leading the nation for home prices.  The metro area's least-expensive homes are seeing big increases.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/re...06-bubble/

Quote:Seattle-area home prices led the country again over the peak spring period and grew at their fastest rate since the 2006 bubble, spurred by a spike in home costs in the metro area’s least-expensive homes, according to a new report.

The median single-family home in the region cost 13.6 percent more in May than a year prior, according to the monthly Case-Shiller home price index, released Tuesday. Las Vegas was again second, with homes gaining 12.6 percent.

It was the 21st month in a row that the Seattle region led the nation in home price gains, the second longest streak since records began in 1987. Portland had topped the nation for 23 consecutive months in the early ’90s.
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Democrats could be primed for a big election year, but a massive one would have to include college-educated voters in the suburbs across the South and the outskirts of some of the big, northern cities:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/31/politics/...urce=twCNN

Quote:One key measure of any Democratic wave in the midterm elections will be whether it crests high enough to overcome the formidable Republican defenses in the growing suburbs across the South. The answer will have implications that extend far beyond 2018.

While Democrats have notched significant gains since the 1990s among white-collar suburban voters in most parts of the country, they have until recently made very little progress at loosening the Republican hold on affluent and increasingly racially diverse suburbs around such Southern metro areas as Atlanta, Houston and Dallas.

But suburban unease with Donald Trump's turbulent presidency may finally provide Democrats an opening to establish a beachhead in such places -- a development that would rattle the electoral map. Although the recoil from Trump among white-collar suburbanites inside the South is not as great as outside of it, both public and private polls signal that enough suburban voters are pulling away from him to create much greater opportunity than usual for Democrats this fall in the governor's race in Georgia, Senate races in Tennessee and Texas, and several suburban House seats across the region. 

"The South is not immune," says Fred Yang, a Democratic pollster working in both Georgia and Tennessee. "We start off lower in some of these (Southern suburbs), definitely. But we are also definitely making inroads first and foremost with college-educated white women, but also college-educated white men."

Many of the most vulnerable Republican House seats around the country are centered on white-collar suburbs. Democrats have strong opportunities in suburban seats from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia through Northern Virginia, Chicago, Minneapolis, Detroit, Denver and Los Angeles. That vulnerability is rooted in the unusual resistance Trump faces among well-educated white voters: Three national polls last week each found that around 60 percent of whites holding at least a four-year college degree disapproved of his performance. 

But one of the key questions for November is whether Democrats can extend that pressure into suburban Southern seats that have previously been safe for Republicans, including districts near Richmond, Charlotte, Houston, Dallas, Austin and Atlanta.

In addition, gains in white-collar suburbs will be critical to Democratic prospects in the Georgia governor's race between African-American Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp; the highly competitive Tennessee Senate contest between former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen and Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn; and the more uphill, but still competitive, challenge by Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke against Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas. 

I think Beto O'Rourke is a great candidate, but the Texas Democratic primary showed that the state party wasn't really solidifying around him.  Cruz recently asked for a bunch of debates, though, so maybe the internal polling is showing a closer race than expected.

Dems have better chances in Georgia's gubernatorial race and for Bob Corker's seat in the Senate, but, yeah, neither is happening without an influx of suburbanites tired of Trump.
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I think Dems have good models in Virginia last year and Connor Lamb's district when it comes to making inroads - especially if Republicans choose immigration as their key issue, and Dems focus on the economy. But who knows?
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(08-01-2018, 09:29 AM)boone daniels Wrote: I think Dems have good models in Virginia last year and Connor Lamb's district when it comes to making inroads - especially if Republicans choose immigration as their key issue, and Dems focus on the economy. But who knows?

Who knows indeed, especially because my darkest mind looks at all the reports that say that the Russians could and did completely infiltrate dozens of states' voting systems - but there's, erm, no sign that they actually changed anything, really guys - and thinks that maybe they didn't bother rigging all those special elections that saw double-digit swings because their analysts told them it wasn't worth taking risks on races that didn't have any risk of swinging the balance of power.  And that when everything is on the line in November, we might coincidentally see a return to GOP support defying polling to the level just necessary to eke out a controlling majority in both houses.
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There are approximately 16,000-17,000 empty apartments in Portland amidst homelessness and housing crises hurting the city:

https://www.oregonbusiness.com/article/r...metro-area

Quote:According to the American Community Survey there are appoximately 352,000 rental units in the Portland metro area.

The census Housing Vacancy survey estimates a 4.8% vacancy rate for the metro area during the second quarter of 2018. 

Combining these figures would imply roughly 16,000-17,000 vacant units, said Chris Salviati, housing economist for the rental site ApartmentList, in an email. 

The community survey rental stock estimates are based on 2016 data and do not take into acccount new apartment construction over the past year and a half.  Another disclaimer: The vacancy rate may include apartments that have been rented to a tenant who has yet to move in.

Industry players are floating slightly different vacancy rates, said Mark Barry, an appraiser with Portland-based Barry & Associates. Multifamily NW pegs the Portland rate at 4.85%; CoStar, 4.6%. The rates vary depending on which units are counted and when the counting begins.

In a city grappling with affordable housing and homeless crises, the big question is whether vacancies, which everyone agrees are rising, will continue to exert downward pressure on rents. Portland rents have already fallen 2.2% in the past year.

A 2017 count found 4,177 homeless people in Multnomah County.
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(08-01-2018, 10:21 AM)schwartz Wrote: Who knows indeed, especially because my darkest mind looks at all the reports that say that the Russians could and did completely infiltrate dozens of states' voting systems - but there's, erm, no sign that they actually changed anything,

Sure they did! They deleted the records!

I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt that they actually closed the obvious loopholes that were made public  (like using the password "abcdef", and no, I'm not kidding). But yeah, I'd have a lot more confidence if the Republicans weren't actively hindering efforts to bolster voting security.

I'd call that collusion, but that requires communication, so I'll just call it conspiracy to commit election fraud, since AFAIK that doesn't require them to know any specifics to still be a crime.
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