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What the fuck!? The thread formally known as "I haven't heard a single compelling reason for Britain to leave the EU."
#36

What's coming out for anyone paying attention is that this is and always has been about the festering anger among certain Tories and ex-Tories that we ratified the Maastricht Treaty (never mind the fact that the extent to which we actually signed up for the things it brought in was very limited, and pretty much only the co-operation stuff on foreign policy and crime). They're dressing it up with appeals to people who they themselves have spent forty years screwing over, and with this weird delusion that our sovereignty is actually under threat (spoiler - it really isn't hence the fact we can exercise it if we choose to leave).



I can understand hard left-wingers being engaged with the fact that despite the social and labour benefits, the EU and its forerunners have always been about promoting trade and capitalism, and I can understand why people left behind after structural change would be looking for someone to blame. That they're being manipulated into thinking it's all about immigration and somehow it will all be changed for the better if we leave is disgraceful, though.

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#37
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bluelouboyle View Post

Now this is interesting. Schauble has categorically stated Britain won't have access to the Single Market if we leave:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/...-says-ver/

I'm no fan of his constrictive, hysterically anti-inflationary policies which have contributed to mass unemployment in Southern Europe, but he has a point.


Depsite the rhetoric I honestly don't think the Brexit leaders, at least on the Troy side, really want to completely detach but instead want to roll back to pre-1992. The problem with Schauble's intervention is that while it would be a factor for anyone politically and historically savvy enough to realise that was the underlying game plan, anyone thinking of voting to leave entirely for sovereignty or immigration reasons is just going to see a foreigner being aggressive and their views will be further entrenched. Especially when it gets spun that way by the pro-Brexit press.



I don't blame him for saying it, though. The idea we would be welcomed to the table with open arms by people we have turned our backs on just when they could really do without the hassle is extraordinarily disingenuous.

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#38

My instinct is that, regardless of the polls at the moment, we'll scrape through with a Bremain. Much like the Scottish Referendum, people generally chicken out for the status quo once they get into the polling booth.



It's unlikely to be conclusive enough to neuter UKIP or Farage though, which is a shame.

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#39

No, and it won't stop the arguments rolling on elsewhere, either.



The one thing it might do...maybe...is spur better focus in Westminster on those left behind over the last forty years (who am I kidding?) and incentivise Brussels to start thinking more about it's broader based appeal. When I was growing up, the interaction with the EEC/EC was about increasing rights, protections and fairness, and funding opportunity. Now, I know it has a firefight on its hands, but they need to start finding more time to emphasise those qualities again.



ETA: That the campaigns have singularly failed to create basic accurate perceptions is a real indictment of this whole process, and of education in this country in general. I am not a fan of referenda and this last few months hasn't changed my mind on that one little bit.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/pol...74311.html

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#40

The Union isn't an a la carte proposal. If everyone gets to pick and choose which rules apply to them it will end up an even more difficult effort. And it's already epically hard.



It's all or nothing.

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#41
A[quote name="stelios" url="/community/t/155548/i-havent-heard-a-single-compelling-reason-for-britain-to-leave-the-eu#post_4080860"]The Union isn't an a la carte proposal. If everyone gets to pick and choose which rules apply to them it will end up an even more difficult effort. And it's already epically hard.

It's all or nothing.[/quote]
Sure. But if "all" gets to the point where it's spurring member states to leave, maybe they might want to take that into consideration.
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#42
Quote:

Originally Posted by stelios View Post
 

The Union isn't an a la carte proposal. If everyone gets to pick and choose which rules apply to them it will end up an even more difficult effort. And it's already epically hard.



It's all or nothing.



Oh, I agree. I was more commenting on what the motivation is behind a lot of this, and that Schauble's intervention won't necessarily make much of a dent. I wish he hadn't said anything about coming back later if Britain wants to. One of my main logical arguments is that Britain can leave whenever it wants to (sort of, article 50, ordinary legislation and all that), but once it is out, it is out forever.

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#43
Quote:

Originally Posted by commodorejohn View Post


Sure. But if "all" gets to the point where it's spurring member states to leave, maybe they might want to take that into consideration.


You might think that, but that would basically defeat the point of a common market. Plus, the long game remains co-operation leading to convergence leading to political union (please). it might seem pragmatic to try to box and cox for a while, and perhaps it seems attractive to do so when the mood music across the continent is not towards integration but there will be a lot of resistance, quite rightly, to stepping back, even if you don't currently move forwards.



There is an argument to say the EU would be better off without Britain (politically at least), but since I live in Britain, I'm not going to be saying that out in public.



In some respects it is worth remembering what the EU is.



There is the EC - this is the common market, same rules for doing business, free movement, no customs duties or similar, labour laws etc


There is the EU - this is the overarching entity which defines citizenship, includes the EC, but also has institutional involvement in stuff around justice, home affairs and foregin policy, purely on a best efforts, co-operative basis


There is the Eurozone - this is the bit with the common currency and all the monetary and lackof fiscal unity that entails.



Immigration aside, which is as I have argued before, taking up time utterly disproportionate to its actual effect on the country, as well as being a fig leaf for domestic policy failings, the political/economic stuff Brexiteers most commonly get stressed about it (a) getting pulled into the Eurozone and (b) the introduction of the EU leading to replacing co-operation on those non-EC issues with actual dominion over them. The irony of course is that no-one has suggested that the exception from the Eurozone, nor the limited involvement on justice or foregin affairs, should be altered.



It's all fear for the future. Which is bollocks, because any such changes would trigger the need for a referendum under UK law, and even if the Tories hadn't crowbarred that into our constitution, would precipitate a national debate on whether to pull out anyway.

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#44

Schauble's comments seem quite reasonable actually, even though the headline talking point of "You won't be allowed to adopt the Norwegian model" is the key talking point.



He has stressed that further political integration is impossible with the brexit looming and expressed worries about the Netherlands for example reacting in a similar fashion. That the politicians would appear out of touch if they didn't respond by realizing there is potential dissatisfaction with the way things are being handled in Europe anyway.



And yes, we can come back. Probably humiliatingly cap in hand, and he has said quite happily he'll take us. Because whatever deal we have to take in thirty years time will not involve half the concessions we have now.



Frankly, the Iceland/Norwegian model is a non-starter anyway. The concessions required to make that work are essentially the key points that Brexit are talking down. We're just going to have to be an external country, tariffs and all and work it out from there.

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#45
Quote:
Originally Posted by flint View Post
 

Schauble's comments seem quite reasonable actually, even though the headline talking point of "You won't be allowed to adopt the Norwegian model" is the key talking point.



He has stressed that further political integration is impossible with the brexit looming and expressed worries about the Netherlands for example reacting in a similar fashion. That the politicians would appear out of touch if they didn't respond by realizing there is potential dissatisfaction with the way things are being handled in Europe anyway.



And yes, we can come back. Probably humiliatingly cap in hand, and he has said quite happily he'll take us. Because whatever deal we have to take in thirty years time will not involve half the concessions we have now.



Frankly, the Iceland/Norwegian model is a non-starter anyway. The concessions required to make that work are essentially the key points that Brexit are talking down. We're just going to have to be an external country, tariffs and all and work it out from there.



All fair points. On reflection the Brexit official position seem to have hardened around the idea that we will simply trade with Europe as an outside party. Which seems like an odd position to put yourself in for the sake of not taking some domestic steps to alleviate the pain for people affected by competitive forces.

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#46
AJoin us, Britain! Become the 51st state.
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#47
AI believe our official designation is Airstrip One in that case.
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#48
AWe'll call you "Old England!"
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#49
AYe Olde England, please.
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#50

EDIT: Sorry, meant this for the Political thread.

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#51
ASo if the good people of UK vote for Brexit, what are the odds that that results in Wales and Scotland voting "yes" for independence, and then joining the European Union?
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#52
AClose to zero. Mikepants will correct me if I'm wrong but Wales hasn't shown much interest in independence.

Another Scottish independence referendum is completely off the table with the oil price this low.
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#53
AFor now, that is true.

I was against independence last time around, but if Britain leaves, my view on Scottiah independence will completely change. For entirely selfish reasons. If it declares independence, it will be the closest place in Europe I can move to without learning a new language. Ireland is also a possibility, and I hold an Irish passport, but my wife hates the place.
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#54
AThere hasn't been much call for Independence from Wales but in the last few weeks people are becoming much more aware of the aid and funds that Wales gets from the EU. Something like £500 million a year, so who knows?

I sadly dont have much to contribute to the thread as I'm certainly among the unwashed masses struggling to keep up with all the facts (and I use the term loosely) being paraded about.

Anyone I talk to who will vote leave is doing so because of "immigration" they can't elaborate on that, it's just "immigration". I genuinely think alot of people think they are simply voting to stop "immigration". Any side effects or consequences just don't matter, it's terrifying.
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#55
AJhp I didn't realise you were Irish. I was born in Dublin, my wife also hates it.
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#56

The Scottish Independence movement will also depend on how many Scots vote for Brexit. There's a current movement in Scotland to vote Brexit just to get rid of Cameron - if Brexit happens, he's probably toast. Dumb though, as the government will essentially refuse to allow another referendum for the SNP because they'll claim the Scottish wanted Brexit as much as the English.



If anyone jumps back into the European fold though, the Scottish will be the first and if the economy tanks, everyone will corral the wagons around London, so the provinces will suffer, which could well motivate a resurgent Welsh independence movement.

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#57

What the fuck? I thought a major issue between the Scottish and the English was the former were more pro-EU.



Talk about cutting the nose off to spite the face.

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#58
A[quote name="Mike's Pants" url="/community/t/155548/i-havent-heard-a-single-compelling-reason-for-britain-to-leave-the-eu/50#post_4081282"]Jhp I didn't realise you were Irish. I was born in Dublin, my wife also hates it.[/quote]

Half on my mum's side. I'm also French Swiss and German, hence the total lack of nationalism in me!

I like the craic but it ain't no way to run a country. Or to put it more insightfully, Ireland is so small and lacking in the four quadrants of a self-sustaining and pluralistic economy that it's horribly unequal: corrupt and materialistic on the one hand; earthy and fun, but dirt poor on the other. Living in neither condition appeals particularly. Which is a shame because there could be such warmth and cohesion if they could just be less reliant on services and find some other, sustainable but productive, exporting industries.
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#59
A[quote name="stelios" url="/community/t/155548/i-havent-heard-a-single-compelling-reason-for-britain-to-leave-the-eu/50#post_4081288"]What the fuck? I thought a major issue between the Scottish and the English was the former were more pro-EU.

Talk about cutting the nose off to spite the face.
[/quote]

Yep. The strategy, such as it is, would be to then go indy and ask to become part of the EU. Such is the unlikely economic story of an independent Scotland at the moment that the chances of the EU agreeing to take on yet another poor relation is very unlikely. The nationalists answer to that is to keep the pound, but the lack of control over monetary policy was one of the knots they didn't manage to untangle well enough the last time,
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#60

So, today we've had one of the leading lights of the Brexit campaign leading a flotilla of Scottish fishing boats up the Thames to advocate leaving the EU because of the long slow death of the fishing industry. Never mind that as a member of the European Parliament he hasn't been to more than 1 meeting in 42 on the subject and missed key votes on reform proposals to shift power back to the national governments. Also, let's only mention in passing that the primary cause of the decline of small fishing enterprises in the UK is the industry consolidation precipitated by domestic political decisions after they were handed back by Brussels.



Anyway, so the flotilla heads down to central London whereupon Sir Bob Geldof, late of the Boomtown Rats and Live Aid, like a scruffy Walter Raleigh leads a fleet of RIBs and other inflatable boats to intercept the Brexit armada. Cue the trading of insults over megaphones, the trolling press photos of the Brexit politican by raising huge "Remain" flags behind him as the pictures are taken, V-signs and water cannon fired from the fishing boats in defence.



What a farce. Like something out of an Ealing comedy, our democracy has been reduced to aquatic handbags between a be-blazered narcissist and a washed up rock star. The home of the mother of Parliaments, the split atom and Bobby Charlton.



Jesus wept.



At least we got this fine comparison between the Brexit douche and Alan Patridge. Which kind of almost made up for the nationally embarrassing shit show.



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#61
ALol yup that sums it up. A depressing couple of days, with this shit show, yesterday The Sun backing Brexit and the Leave campaign pulling ahead in some polls.
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#62
A[Image: 800]
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#63

Rule Britannia.



Apparently Westminster gossip is that postal votes are heavily leaning towards Brexit. There is some sampling that happens prior to polling day, I understand, so there may be some basis for it. That or canvassing.



What a month to give up drinking.

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#64
APowerful appeal to remain from a WW2 veteran:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016...o_Facebook
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#65

Bears out the reports that the positive correlation between increasing age and likelihood of voting to leave is turned on its head when you get to the 75+ demographic.

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#66

A female Member of Parliament for the Labour Party has just been shot in Yorkshire. Early reports possibly suggest attacker shouted out "Britain First" before shooting her, although that is unconfirmed. If true, it would be on the same day that the main party angling for Brexit unveiled this poster as part of a mainstream political debate.




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#67

It's interesting that all the political players in Europe focus on the symptom of massive immigration while ignoring the causes (turmoil in the Middle East and Africa).



If the US/UK/EU ( and let's throw in Russia and the Arab League because why not?) acted to definitively solve the Syria crisis (even if it meant Assad remained in power), the mass immigration's would be mitigated at least.



It's like world leaders have finally decided to throw up their hands and pretend the Middle East doesn't exist even while they freak out about the consequences.

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#68

I'm not sure politicians are ignoring Syria so much as being distracted by more immediate issues and lacking any popular mandate to engage materially because of the electorates' hangover with the failed expeditionary missions of the last decade and a half. Aside from debt, the massive influx into Europe is the immediate problem that needs addressing. That political debate has focused on the issue to the detriment is perhaps not that surprising.



Now, you could well argue it is the responsibility of good leadership to lead on these issues and move the populus to where you want them to be, but as we're seeing in Britain at the moment, the current crop of politicians are either doing deals with the devil to advance their own agendas, or running scared from the forces so unleashed. They don't really understand and don't appear to have the political capital left to confront the electorate on these issues in any meaningful way.

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#69
AThe Labour MP who was attacked has died.

Corbyn's statement:

"The whole of the Labour Party and Labour family - and indeed the whole country - will be in shock at the horrific murder of Jo Cox today.

Jo Cox had a lifelong record of public service and a deep commitment to humanity. She worked both for Oxfam and the anti-slavery charity, the Freedom Fund, before she was elected last year as MP for Batley and Spen – where she was born and grew up.

Jo was dedicated to getting us to live up to our promises to support the developing world and strengthen human rights – and she brought those values and principles with her when she became an MP.

Jo Cox died doing her public duty at the heart of our democracy, listening to and representing the people she was elected to serve. It is a profoundly important cause for us all.

Jo was universally liked at Westminster, not just by her Labour colleagues, but across parliament.

In the coming days, there will be questions to answer about how and why she died. But for now all our thoughts are with Jo’s husband Brendan and their two young children. They will grow up without their Mum, but can be immensely proud of what she did, what she achieved and what she stood for.

We send them our deepest condolences. We have lost a much loved colleague, a real talent and a dedicated campaigner for social justice and peace. But they have lost a wife and a mother, and our hearts go out to them."
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#70
ATake a look at @afneil's Tweet: https://twitter.com/afneil/status/743481...01536?s=09
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