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The 2019 Oscar Season (Brought To You By Boone, Sponsored by Readers Like You)
#1
New York Film Festival and Toronto both announced their main slates this week. Coupled with reports that JUST MERCY is fast becoming the one to beat and ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD is drawing big, big crowds and big, big raves at early Academy screenings, let's fuckin' do this shit: 

TIFF: 

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/07/oscars...202160225/

(Highlights: Joker, Knives Out, The Laundromat*, Ford v. Ferrari, Judy, Just Mercy, Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Report, Harriet, Clemency**)

NYFF: 

https://www.filmlinc.org/nyff2019/daily/57th-new-york-film-festival-main-slate-announced


(Highlights: Irishman, Marriage Story, Motherless Brooklyn, First Cow, Parasite, Pain & Glory)

*Meryl working with Soderbergh feels like it should have happened ages ago.

**Could this be the year Alfre Woodard gets her first Oscar nomination?
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#2
Best director: Todd Phillips
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#3
Best Director: Fred Durst
Best Actor: John Travolta

They’re saying The Fanatic is this year’s Roma!
"PREDATOR 2 feels like it was penned by convicts as part of a correctional facility's creative writing program, and that's what I love about it." - Moltisanti
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#4
Pre-festival predictions. A few no-guts no-glory calls in here, because what are early predictions for if not for falling flat on your face, and I remain incredibly skeptical of Joker until we get actual reviews:

BEST PICTURE:
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Marriage Story

DIRECTOR:
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Antonio Banderas, Dolor & Gloria
Robert De Niro, The Irishman

ACTRESS:
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saorise Ronan, Little Women
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Alfre Woodard, Clemency

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
John Lithgow, Fair and Balanced

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Laura Dern, Marriage Story OR Little Women
Zhao Shunzen, The Farewell
Nicole Kidman, Fair and Balanced
Annette Bening, The Report
Meryl Streep, The Laundromat

In terms of winners, I think Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is going to happen. I also think if Dern's a nominee, she could very, very easily get the career/"It's your time" win as well - the last few years have very much been "Remember how much we all love Laura Dern?" building from Enlightened/Wild on.
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#5
I'd put good money on Pitt.
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#6
Never bet against a film that romanticizes Hollywood.
My karmic debt must be huge.

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#7
I don't think there's a way in hell Jojo Rabbit gets a best pic nod.
If you're happy, you're not paying attention.

Originally Posted by JacknifeJohnny: 
Glad that you guys worked that out amongst yourselves.

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#8
Been predicting a Lithgow nomination for that since he got cast. Not sure if he can take it, but it’s damn time the Academy makes up for not recognizing his work in Ricochet.
"PREDATOR 2 feels like it was penned by convicts as part of a correctional facility's creative writing program, and that's what I love about it." - Moltisanti
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#9
I love the idea of Taika Waititi getting nominated for playing imaginary Hitler.

I still think Lupita Nyong'o has a strong chance at a nomination for Us.
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#10
The buzz on Jojo Rabbit has been very, VERY strong and has been since the beginning of the year. Fox Searchlight seems to be positioning it as their big gun this year, and they know how to get weird shit into the BP race. In fact, if anything I'm under-predicting it compared to some punters (who think it's also going to get a supporting actress nom - or even two - for ScarJo and/or Thomasin McKenzie).
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#11
Here's my only significant (and unlikely) prediction:

John Williams will receive his 52nd Oscar nomination for THE RISE OF SKYWALKER, and he will win his (extraordinarily long overdue) 6th as a kind of celebration of his career. I think the Disney PR machine has the muscle to make something like this happen; sell his TROS score as an unprecedented final chapter in a 9-installment cinematic symphony, and get Spielberg and other surrogates out there on the circuit talking up how important it is that Williams get recognized one last time.

I don't expect the RISE score will really be Oscar-worthy, but he's written (conservatively) about 10 Oscar-worthy scores since his last win for SCHINDLER'S LIST, and it's time. This is the last plausible chance to honor him.
If we can dream it, then we can do it.
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#12
(08-08-2019, 01:34 PM)Neil Spurn Wrote: I don't think there's a way in hell Jojo Rabbit gets a best pic nod.

Because the overserious goobers who run these things continually fail to acknowledge that comedy >>>>>>> drama?
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#13
Sure, that and all the Hitler stuff.
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#14
The Academy loves Holocaust movies. Haven't you even seen Extras?
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#15
So easy to conflate the Holocaust and Hitler.
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#16
It depends. If the film makes fun of Hitler and ends up being as heartwarming as it seems it could very well get that Life is Beautiful nomination.
I might have been born yesterday sir, but I stayed up all night!
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#17
I'm hoping that Booksmart will get some recognition. It does seem that industry types loved it, regardless of its box office.
"I'd rather wake up in the middle of nowhere than in any city on Earth."--Steve McQueen
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#18
(08-09-2019, 06:59 AM)hammerhead Wrote: I'm hoping that Booksmart will get some recognition. It does seem that industry types loved it, regardless of its box office.

Booksmart will follow in the footsteps of BIG SICK, THE LOBSTER, HELL OR HIGH WATER, EX MACHINA, NIGHTCRAWLER, BRIDESMAIDS, MARGIN CALL, IN BRUGES, and more as the "we liked your movie, but not that much, so here's a Best Original Screenplay nomination." Which it will then lose to ONCE UPON A TIME...

Also

Quote:SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

That first trailer pretty clearly positioned Hanks as the lead. I said at the time I'd expect a big "Iron Lady" style push to give it to Hanks, thus tying him with DDL.
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#19
From what I’ve heard, Rhys is very definitely the actual lead of Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. I guess they could category fraud Hanks, though.
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#20
“You respect HANX... BUT NOT ME!??!??” - Matthew Rhys tearing up a Bible when he finds out he’s not getting an Oscar nomination.

I just met Taika Waititi, by the way. Absolute class act. Definitely rooting for him to get a nomination.
"PREDATOR 2 feels like it was penned by convicts as part of a correctional facility's creative writing program, and that's what I love about it." - Moltisanti
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#21
I gotta say, as much as I’m interested in Jojo Rabbit, I feel like its Oscar chances are somewhere between Godzilla: King of Monsters and Crawl.
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#22
(08-09-2019, 01:46 PM)huntertarantino Wrote: I just met Taika Waititi, by the way. Absolute class act. Definitely rooting for him to get a nomination.

How did such a splendid thing come to pass that Taika Waititi got to meet THE Hunter Tarantino?
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#23
(08-09-2019, 11:41 PM)Bucho Wrote:
(08-09-2019, 01:46 PM)huntertarantino Wrote: I just met Taika Waititi, by the way. Absolute class act. Definitely rooting for him to get a nomination.

How did such a splendid thing come to pass that Taika Waititi got to meet THE Hunter Tarantino?

He gets in my car. I give him a ride. We talk a little about Marvel, a lot about Springsteen and music videos.

I recommended Yor: The Hunter from the Future to him, when he surprisingly denied ever seeing it.
"PREDATOR 2 feels like it was penned by convicts as part of a correctional facility's creative writing program, and that's what I love about it." - Moltisanti
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#24
Let's talk ENDGAME's chances.

I think, given Disney's dominance and the movie's success, it would not surprise me if they make a big, successful push for a Best Picture nomination.

A nomination for RDJ is more of a stretch but I can also see that happening.
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#25
I feel like Disney would rather win for Aladdin or Lion King.

Now what are the odds they push for a "career" trophy on Star Wars?
"I'd rather wake up in the middle of nowhere than in any city on Earth."--Steve McQueen
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#26
I feel like both ENDGAME and RISE OF SKYWALKER have that "career/victory lap" vibe a la LOTR that help them more than Aladdin/Lion King. Lion King is all but a lock for VFX and Song nominations.
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#27
I can totally see a push for RDJ for Best Actor. 'I lost the kid'...that line delivery alone felt like a bid for Oscar attention. Considering the goodwill of the movie and the goodwill towards RDJ, I think he's got a good chance of a nom. Winning? That's another story, but honestly...the nom would be the victory.
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#28
I think RDJ definitely has an outside chance. Feels like a pretty weak category so far this year.

As for THE LION KING, surely it's going to be pushed for Best Animated Feature... right? Unlike THE JUNGLE BOOK, which could hang its hat on the lead actor's performance, there's nothing that was really photographed with THE LION KING. If Disney and the Academy were being intellectually honest, it would be placed there, and not in the Visual Effects category. It's an animated film.
If we can dream it, then we can do it.
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#29
They're going to push TOY STORY 4 for best Animated Feature. There's a reason they've been talking it up for ages as "live-action."

I think RDJ has a lot of goodwill, but I don't think it's enough to push him to a win, especially up against Hanx as Mr. Rogers.
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#30
Oh, there's no way that he wins unless the field is extremely weak, but I think a nom is likely.

Also, I can see a positive feeling towards giving the film an award for something other than technical merit, and RDJ did pick up a lot of extremely good acting notices for this picture.
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#31
I don’t know, I think the only way either Endgame or Downey sneak in there is of the field ends up being extraordinarily weak. There’ll always be something like Green Book to swallow votes, and Endgame’s out on Blu-ray now. They’d have to really invest in an Oscar push to even end up in the conversation, and for what? The franchise hardly needs more rewarding.
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#32
I think the person they push for the "career" win for SW is probably Williams, as Belloq has said. This is a case where he's digging in the right place.

Also, they have Toy Story 4, but also Frozen II on deck in terms of animated.

As for Endgame... I'd really have to see it to believe it. It's already got Joker trying to out-prestige it in the comic book movie lane (WB are better Oscar campaigners than Disney and it'll have "overdue" Joaquin to hang its hat off if it's any good and not the "WE LIVE IN A SOCIETY!!!!!" Scorsese knockoff I suspect it's going to end up being), and Black Panther definitely missed out on noms it could/should have gotten (last year's Best Supporting Actor field was weak and they couldn't get MBJ in?). I wouldn't be shocked if Endgame has a guild run similar to the '09 Trek or Deadpool, but ultimately fails to get any of the big ones.
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#33
(08-19-2019, 05:00 PM)Dent6084 Wrote: I think the person they push for the "career" win for SW is probably Williams, as Belloq has said. This is a case where he's digging in the right place.

Also, they have Toy Story 4, but also Frozen II on deck in terms of animated.

As for Endgame... I'd really have to see it to believe it. It's already got Joker trying to out-prestige it in the comic book movie lane (WB are better Oscar campaigners than Disney and it'll have "overdue" Joaquin to hang its hat off if it's any good and not the "WE LIVE IN A SOCIETY!!!!!" Scorsese knockoff I suspect it's going to end up being), and Black Panther definitely missed out on noms it could/should have gotten (last year's Best Supporting Actor field was weak and they couldn't get MBJ in?). I wouldn't be shocked if Endgame has a guild run similar to the '09 Trek or Deadpool, but ultimately fails to get any of the big ones.

Ha! 

I like Belloq's call on John Williams, too. Definitely seems apropos. Probably his "last roundup," aside from potentially scoring "Indy 5," should it actually be made.

Difficult to forecast in August, but I can definitely see Endgame getting in for a Best Picture nomination. It almost surely will not win, but it would be something of a "golf clap/victory lap" type of situation, rewarding Marvel for their decade-spanning accomplishment. 

I agree with Dent on Joker, or at least on how it looks from afar, sight unseen. Feels very much like Scorsese-lite, in a different way from American Hustle. That film seemed to be punished for being a "Scorsese-lite crime caper" with the '70s milieu, and Joker seems to be tapping into Taxi Driver/King of Comedy "relevance" in a way that could definitely turn a lot of people off. 

Credit to Sony and Quentin Tarantino for at least releasing a "heavy hitter" in the midsummer to let us see something. Every year this phenomenon of the autumn and early winter being thoroughly clogged with prestige pictures seems to worsen just a little, even with Jordan Peele and Tarantino situating their films as "counter-programming." Not surprisingly Peele and Tarantino are not making "straight" prestige films by a mile, more marinated in genre as they are.

Speaking of Peele, I hope Lupita Nyong'o is remembered in the Best Actress category for Us. That film seems to have lost much of its momentum in a way that is different from Get Out, but Nyong'o was exceptional. That category looks like it should be rather formidable, though, as usual.
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#34
Netflix's release schedule for its big films this year:

https://deadline.com/2019/08/netflix-edd...202705169/

Based on this, they seem particularly confident in Marriage Story, with Irishman and Two Popes probably next on their list.
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#35
All right. So. Joker.

It seems pretty clear from the reviews today that Phoenix is indeed going to be a player in the Best Actor race. It also sounds like the most high-profile techs - Cinematography, Editing, Score - are flashy enough to potentially contend (though I think a Score nom is pretty unlikely because that category is ridiculously stacked and it's not a well-known composer). But I don't presently think it's going to go all the way to a BP nom (and, honestly, it's probably going to prevent Endgame from whatever small chance IT had, even likely swiping its PGA nomination), Director nomination, or Screenplay. WB is clearly going to put money behind it, and it'll likely be one of the higher-grossing films in the race, but it also sounds like there's going to be a very loud contingent against it, combined with genre bias, that will prevent it from going the distance.
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