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The Official Box Office Thread
#36
Quote:

Originally posted by Straxboy - An Anthony Hickox Film
Of course it's what cinema owners keep a tab on. How many dollars is the most they can make, per screen, they operate ? And which film will generate that biggest figure, consistently. It's what the enitre exhibition industry bases it's hold overs on first thing Monday morning. I used to dealwith it for two years. Dull, but true. Anything over $6000 per screen and they'll be pretty happy.

$25 000 000 at 2 900 screens would be $8000 give or take. That's certainly what they'd hope and more than likely get.


but it's easy for a limited release to get a higher screen AVG. and some of these limited movies aren't worth to be expanded since they have not broad appeal. i just wanted to say they have also to look at the numbers of theaters it's playing in.
#37
Loki, that's how you calculate the screen average: gross receipts divided by number of theatres.

Hence arthouse releases (if good) are hyped by having small screen numbers which give them huge screen averages of $10 000 or more, because that's what industry folk look at.

By the same turn it's easy for a picture opening on a saturating 4000 screens to make $30 million, but it would only have been seen by half the amount of customers than a $30 million grossing picture on, say, 2000 screens. Prints cost money, so the more per screen the better.

It isn't easy for a small picture to get a high average if no one goes. But if they're all going to the same place which they have to as it's limited, it drives it up. Point is, the screen average figure is the one viewed with greater scrutiny.
#38
whatever it is, I'm against it!
#39
With Passion and Palm Sunday and such, and Hellboy being on a couple hundred more screens than Walking Tall, watch for two flicks to do near identical numbers opening weekend. But Walking Tall won't have as good a shelf life.
#40
Of all this talk of Hellboy vs. Walking tall, I'm willing to bet that Disney's Home on the Range steamrolls over both of them. Every parent in America is going to get dragged to it this weekend. Look at fucking Scooby Doo 2!
#41
Quote:

Originally posted by Spyderman
You people must be on some serious crack or snorting the Nunz cool aid if you believe Hellboy will do good business for more than one week. It will be lucky as shit if it passes Walking Tall and even then it will get slammed down in a week. Look at Dawn of the Dead. Compare it to that. Its no Back to the Future. This idea isn't nearly that iconic. Its a 2 hour Angel episode. Woopie doo. I bet this movie will barely break 100 mill. I bet the Rocks does better in the end. We'll see. The Rock has the Harry and Nick hype machines against him but lately they've been so wrong studios and people are finally beginning to ignore these amatuer journalists....as well they should. Hopefully Hellboy will be a nail in the coffin. I will pray to Mels Jesus.



Good luck with that whole being wrong thing.
#42
Quote:

Originally posted by Ratty
Of all this talk of Hellboy vs. Walking tall, I'm willing to bet that Disney's Home on the Range steamrolls over both of them. Every parent in America is going to get dragged to it this weekend. Look at fucking Scooby Doo 2!

Bad example. Scooby Doo 2 had disappointing opening considering what the first one made. And it's already dying on the vine and will probably see The Passion overtake it for the #1 spot Wednesday - Thursday. Then, Friday Hellboy and Walking Tall open. I wouldn't be surprised to see Scooby Doo 2 fall out of the top 5 in its second week. That' not good.

You're right, though, that if parents want to take their children to a "kids movie" they don't have many options right now. It's pretty much Home on The Range or Scooby Doo 2.
#43
Bateman, what are your predictions for Hellboy's opening weekend and total b.o. numbers?
#44
It all depends on the numbers this weekend. If it grosses over 30, we have 150 total domestic easy. If it makes less I have no fucking idea.

No matter what, we're looking at an enormous DVD. Much bigger than X2.
#45
Well, it would have to have an amazing multiplier to make $150 or more if it opens around $30 million. I think it would have to pull in $45-50 million this weekend to have a shot at more than $150. But if it opens solid (anything $30 million or more) it should certainly get to post $100 million numbers.

Here's to hoping it does all that, and more.
#46
The film is much more accessible than most realize. It has a lot of broad appeall, and most people will realize it about ten minutes in. I'm pretty excited to see it with a real audience several times this weekend. The first time was obviously a rare case, then this Monday wasn't a traditional crowd.
#47
I think it'll open #1.
#48
A friend of mine is taking off half a day tomorrow so we can go see Hellboy a little early, with the anticipation that we may well want to see it again in the evening or over the weekend.

I don't care if it breaks the banks this weekend, but I do hope it does well.
#49
3,028 screens for "Hellboy" this weekend, officially.
#50
Some serious Hellboy underestimation going on here. Just because it's a geek property doesn't mean it's going to only attract a cult audience. Don't all the arguments being applied to Hellboy also apply to LOTR?

I'm not saying it's going to be a gigantic smash, but it's sure as hell going to beat Walking Tall (I haven't seen The Rundown, but by all accounts it's a better movie, and it still couldn't top #1.) I also don't see why the Passion should beat it, given that it's not Easter yet. If Scooby-Doo and the Ladykillers could top it...
#51
Actually "The Rundown" was #1 its 1st weekend with about $18.5 million. I think I'm starting to have the opinion that "Hellboy" and "Walking Tall" will split the young male dollar and 'Home on the Range" will end up slipping into the #1 spot.

"Hellboy" will be getting my money.
#52
hellboy made 8,970,000
walking tall 5,250,000
home on the range 4,000,000
prince and me 3,480,000

showbiz
#53
Hellboy will probably make 24-27 million for the weekend and finish with about 70-90 million. That is my prediction.
#54
Box Office Mojo's Friday Estimates:

HELLBOY 8.78

WALKING TALL 5.54

HOME ON THE RANGE 4.03

SCOOBY-DOO 2: MONSTERS UNLEASHED 3.63

THE PRINCE & ME 3.51

THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST 2.69

THE LADYKILLERS 2.20

JERSEY GIRL 1.67

DAWN OF THE DEAD 1.40

TAKING LIVES 1.08


Decent Friday opening numbers for "Hellboy". Not bad, but I'm sure everyone was hoping for $10+ million, especially given awareness and how it was tracking.

Strong showing for "Walking Tall".

"Scooby Doo 2" is tanking (thankfully)

Good number for "The Ladykillers"

"The Passion" dropped only 13% from last Friday and is at about $323 million with Holy Week just around the corner.
#55
Jesus, "Eternal Sunshine" has already dropped out of the Top 10. Focus really dropped the ball with that one. Methinks we'll be seeing this re-released towards the end of the year for Oscar noms.
#56
Those are really good numbers for HELLBOY considering that WALKING TALL is siphoning off a portion of its audience. HOME ON THE RANGE opened softer than I expected.
#57
Quote:

Originally posted by Ratty
Jesus, "Eternal Sunshine" has already dropped out of the Top 10. Focus really dropped the ball with that one. Methinks we'll be seeing this re-released towards the end of the year for Oscar noms.

Focus didn't drop the ball. The American public did.
#58
Quote:

Originally posted by Sean Bateman
Focus didn't drop the ball. The American public did.

It would be nice to imagine the film's themes of love and identity so universal as to crossover into the pop realm of moviemaking accessibility, but that's a pipe dream. Eternal Sunshine is an artistic film. It's full of melancholy. It's weird. It's structure is unconventional. Jim Carrey completely plays against his 'bread and butter' persona. The ending is ambiguous. It has a very European sensibility.

Too bad it cost 35+ million because it's performing like most critically well recieved "independent" films, specifically of the Charlie Kaufman variety. If it were nominated for key Oscars, we're talking 35+ million domestically.


I believe it will do better overseas and find many new fans on video.
#59
I think over the weekend Home on the Range will place in front of Walking Tall.

Regarding Eternal Sunshine, it's certainly beloved online considering its rating at IMDB
#60
Weekend Estimates now posted at BOM.

1. Hellboy- $23.5
2. Walking Tall- $15.3
3. Scooby Doo- $15
4. Home on the Range- $14
5. The Prince and Me- $10
6. Attack of the Jesus- $9.8
7. The Ladykillers- $7
8. Jersey Girl- $5.1
9. Dawn of the Dead- $4.3
10. Taking Lives- $3.5

Taking Lives just nudged Eternal Sunshine out of the Top Ten by $1,000. I feel hatred.

All in all a very spread out weekend, which isn't surprising considering four new films opened and all finished in the top 5. Out of those four Hellboy will probably have the best legs.

Mel Gibson had this to say about the success of POTC- "Oh, so you want to torture me, huh? Well, do your worst! KAH-BLAHHHH!! KAH-BLAHHHHH!!!"
#61
Quote:

Originally posted by Werbal_Kint
Weekend Estimates now posted at BOM.

1. Hellboy- $23.5
2. Walking Tall- $15.3
3. Scooby Doo- $15
4. Home on the Range- $14
5. The Prince and Me- $10
6. Attack of the Jesus- $9.8
7. The Ladykillers- $7
8. Jersey Girl- $5.1
9. Dawn of the Dead- $4.3
10. Taking Lives- $3.5


1. Expected more out of HELLBOY. I don't know if it will have legs, it may look too niche for the general audiences. Remember, THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN opened to $23 million in a far more competitive marketplace (also, a lot of people forget it's $178 million worldwide take).

2. WALKING TALL did modest. It may finish it's run with a solid, respectable $45 million gross. After video and overseas take, it should be a healthy earner for the Rock. He remains unable to break into the bigtime, although I doubt anyone saw WALKING TALL as a big earner except for the franchise-starved MGM.

3. SCOOBY DOO 2 has made it to $50 million in two weeks and, given the lack of kiddie pictures, should be able to gross $80 million, which is really solid for a kidpic sequel.

4. HOME ON THE RANGE looked meager, and audiences responded with a tepid first week. Traditional animation takes another kick in the stomach at Disney.

5. THE PRINCE AND ME proves the existence of the tweener girl audience following surprise successes like THE PRINCESS DIARIES, FREAKY FRIDAY and the like. It won't make a bundle, but it should easily surpass it's $22 mil. production cost.

6. PASSION OF THE CHRIST makes me doubt how much I know about movie audiences. I'd say on a given weekend, a large portion of America were going to see movies, but with PASSION, it feels like an entirely new demographic of people who weren't going to see the likes of SCOOBY DOO 2 or WALKING TALL. Bizarre.

7. I want to see a Coen brothers film explode at the box office someday, but LADYKILLERS, with its somewhat smaller release and R rating, seems to have had limited appeal. Too bad.

8. Kevin Smith movies will never hit the mainstream, even if he abandons the dick and fart jokes. JERSEY GIRL's eventual $25 million gross is admirable.

9. Hey, wasn't DAWN OF THE DEAD the number one movie in America three weeks ago? The movie hasn't turned out to be the massive success its opening weekend dictated, but a $60 million domestic gross should be enough to request more zombie movies, if anything that neato Eli Roth DEATHDREAM remake.

10. TAKING LIVES- nothing like a multiplex space-filler. Apparently, audiences found themselves going for their third and fourth choice at the cinemas, and it was TAKING LIVES, which has almost pulled in $30 million.
#62
the studio was expecting to do around $30m on opening weekend for Hellboy right? i wonder how the sequel plans will play out now. it should do ok worldwide, and i bet it brings in a lot through DVD sales... but would the studio back a sequel? i'm hoping so, even if they are only given a small budget again.

if the movie made $9 million on Friday alone, i don't see how it could only make $14.5 over Saturday and Sunday. i hope their estimates are off.
#63
how much did THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN cost to make? i'm betting more than $60m.
#64
I can see Hellboy having strong word-of-mouth.
#65
I to can see Hellboy having good word of mouth, and it should do great on dvd. Everyone I know that saw it loved it (of course I am a university student so I guess I am part of the target demographic for the movie)
#66
Quote:

Originally posted by lordelsey
(of course I am a university student so I guess I am part of the target demographic for the movie)

I am a truck driver, so I am probably not.
#67
Quote:

Originally posted by micronaut
how much did THE LEAGUE OF EXTRAORDINARY GENTLEMEN cost to make? i'm betting more than $60m.

The production budget was somewhere around $80 mil., although I wouldn't be surprised about overruns.
#68
i expected about this from Hellboy. I did not expect Scooby Doo 2 to be as big this weekend.
I almost forgot about Home on the Range.

Hellboy got similar numbers that Matrix 1 did. Just a little less at a few less theatres - add in inflation and that means Hellboy did a slightly worse then Matrix - and since Matrix was up against no real direct competition - this kinda makes them a little more equal.
this weekend (relatively speaking) in previous years.
1999 - Matrix 27.7 in 2800 screens
2000 - Erin Brokovich 13.7 in 2900 screens in week 3
2001 - Spy Kids 26 in 3100 screens
2002 - Panic Room 30 in 3000 screens
2003 - Phone Booth 15 in 2400 screens

This weekend is pretty much the same as every other year. They put out a big action movie - expect 25-35 million. None of the stars in Hellboy that you can actually recognize are huge (like Jodi Foster in Panic Room or Keanu in Matrix)

Walking Tall is a different TYPE of movie geared towards the age range hellboy gears to - but they are two DIFFERENT crowds. Home on the Range should have waited a couple weeks more after Scooby Doo 2 came out. They split the crowd because there is virtually the same crowd going to those two movies - maybe a 5 year age difference.
The Prince and Me is a romantic comedy which is what it is. No real competion except Jersey Girl and not really high expectations.

Next weekend Hellboy's only REAL competition is The Alamo. If it is good it will dominate - if it is not then the battle will be split between even numbers towards Hellboy and The Girl Next Door.
If the Alamo is NOT number 1 then i am saying Girl Next Door WILL be. THAT will be a closer race then this week. And we need to see how the next 3 weeks work with Spring break. I think Break here is in a week - not sure.
Then the week after is the battle between Punisher and Kill Bill 2.
A battle? that is more like Galactus Vs. Jubilee. - ok maybe not THAT bad but i can't see Punisher getting too much action in.
Then the following week is Man on Fire vs 13 Going on 30 - no where near the same audience - probably Man on Fire at #1 with twice the numbers of 13 Going on 30.

As for Hellboy - if it is awesome to most people it will probably hover in the top 5 for several weeks - maybe even until Van Helsing - but Punisher, Walking Tall, The Girl Next Door and the Alamo might drop off the top 5 relatively quickly. Man on Fire might stay awhile since it is near perfect of a marketing situation.
If it get high praise and good word of mouth it will be big.
Denzil, Dakota and directed by Tony Scott - with what looks to be a good story AND good action - MAYBE it will be the big one for April. But what do I know - i thought LXG was going to tie Pirates last year - yeah right.
#69
What's the deal with Man on Fire? You'd think that an action film starring Denzel would be generating some seirous attention. Beyond a new trailer a month ago, I haven't seen a peep out of it.
#70
Quote:

Originally posted by g-dude
What's the deal with Man on Fire? You'd think that an action film starring Denzel would be generating some seirous attention. Beyond a new trailer a month ago, I haven't seen a peep out of it.

The trailer is LITERALLY playing in front of every single film at the ten screen theater I work at. It's like around the clock "Man on Fire" around there.


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